WWYD 2014-05-08

[or2az]

east/south match

[or2az]

Thought I would turn this into a poll since I wasn't getting much of a response the other way.
Don't know why the choices came up as tiles, but I like it.
I tossed the since there were three and a already in the discards. The is next to go.
The might appear better since there are also three and a in the discards, and then I would only need to draw a or or to be tenpai. However, the resulting wait would have me in furiten because I already threw out the .

[or2az]

I have come back to this WWYD because in spite of what I thought was a good discard with a good explanation to back it up, the results of the poll show a variety of choices, including "others", so now, I have some doubts, although I have not changed my mind.
I would appreciate some expert opinions on this one, even if they are contrary to my own. Education is a wonderful thing.

[Iapetus]

I must admit this hand confused me back then because of the 14p double furiten. However, now I don't really see an alternative to 7m. It's the widest path to tenpai, and however crappy that tenpai would be, it's worth something. The 7m isn't hyper dangerous or anything. There's no specific visible threat to defend against, so it's better to stockpile safe tiles than throw them away now.

[or2az]

I can see now that the discard is slightly better than the for tenpai, or a win. Both seem to be better choices than the or
Comparing the two situations;

Here, discarding the 3-crack, six of the crack tiles are available (555568).
With the 7-crack discard, seven are available (2445555)

(I also now see that both situations allow the re-drawing of the 1p or 4p for tenpai, 3 additional tiles (144), which eliminate the furiten. I have to keep reminding myself that furiten doesn't affect self-drawn tiles.)
I hope I'm correct in all of this.

However, since there are no 7's in the discards, and there is a recent 3, doesn't that make the 7 more dangerous to toss ?