WWYD 2014-07-22

or2az · Post by **or2az** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 4:46 pm

East/south match, red fives, one of each

Ignatius · Post by **Ignatius** » Tue Jul 22, 2014 9:53 pm

I choose to throw the

at first , the other one could be a safe tile later, as

, everybody is discarding terminals... Having a trio of

called and a

dora it´s ok. The hand it´s almost ready. I would throw the

to focus on building trios with

and

and then I will choose carefully the pair with

or

or other tile. This is the hand´s midgame, also you have a yakitori marker, something to get rid of as fast as you can. I will probably move fast, calling.

I think is okay too to keep both

and discard the

or

.

Those are my newbie-like options.

or2az · Post by **or2az** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:59 am

I decided on the

. The only reason I had was that the

was my first discard (and the dealers 2nd) and I didn't want to find myself in furiten later on.

If the

wasn't the dora, and with 43 tiles still remaining, I might have considered going for the half flush.

saitym · Post by **saitym** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:21 pm

This problem is generally thought as a solved problem under non-specific circumstances. Even if the

is furiten, you should discard the

rather than the

. The reasoning for this is the massive difference in the number of tiles that you can draw to go to tenpai.

(assuming the

dicard ) will have

(4 each, 8 in total) and

(2 of each for total of 6) with a grand total of 14 tiles needed for tenpai. On the other hand

will have

( 4 of each minus 2 9m already discarded to give total of 14) and

(2 each, total 4) to give a grand total of 18 tiles needed for tenpai. 4 tile difference may not seem much but i can assure you it is a massive difference in mahjong.

You may also be wondering about the danger of furiten but there is no danger of furiten with the

discard as even if you don't draw

first, you can discard

to create a pair wait with

and

. on the other hand

discard has a high probability of being furiten and therefore should be avoided.

Another main reasoning for choosing

over

is the ryoukei-ritsu or probability of getting a good wait ( in this case a double sided wait) once tenpai. for the discard of

, you must draw either

or

first to get the

double sided wait which is only 4 tiles. with the discard of

, you can draw

( total of 10 tiles) to get the

wait. obviously having a good wait at tenpai greatly increases you chances of winning that round.

you may argue that pon is stronger than chi but in this case I think that the disadvantages of creating another pair outweigh the advantages.

Another small attention to detail include the fast discard of

by kamicha, which may suggest that kamicha does not have a

in the hand and therefore likely to discard it again even if the player draws it again making it worth leaving the

as a chi potential.

or2az · Post by **or2az** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:37 pm

This is very impressive. I really appreciate you taking the time to register on the forum and post a reply.
I read it a few times and can understand what you are saying, and it makes sense.
It reminds me of a wwyd from a few months ago where Ozball used what he called method 2 to analyze another problem.
viewtopic.php?f=49&t=53253&p=57196&hili ... d+2#p57194
I tend to look at these via method 1, time-restricted game conditions, although the in-depth analysis is very much appreciated.

Getting back to this problem, with 26 tiles in the discard pool, and only two cracks, both of them nines, it would seem that someone (or everyone) is also collecting them. I would think that this would tend to impact the actual mathematical probabilities of the quickest way to tenpai, so under actual game conditions, I'm not sure tossing the

would be any better (or worse) than tossing the

.

I believe that in some cases, and under certain conditions, that the quickest path to tenpai is not always the route that should be followed, but I could be wrong about this. (Is that occult thinking? I am usually digital.)

Once again, thanks for your reply, looking forward to more of them.

Ignatius · Post by **Ignatius** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 8:47 pm

Yeah that saitym´s first post was awesome. But its true, as or2az said, that in some cases, and under certain conditions, that the quickest path to tenpai is not always the route that should be followed.

That´s why for me mahjong is very hard, which make it cooler too... I love to see myself participating here. I like a lot this forum, is a good place to learn. And to help sometimes, in my case, with llittle translations.

Iapetus · Post by **Iapetus** » Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:18 pm

or2az wrote:This is very impressive. I really appreciate you taking the time to register on the forum and post a reply.
I read it a few times and can understand what you are saying, and it makes sense.
It reminds me of a wwyd from a few months ago where Ozball used what he called method 2 to analyze another problem.
viewtopic.php?f=49&t=53253&p=57196&hili ... d+2#p57194
I tend to look at these via method 1, time-restricted game conditions, although the in-depth analysis is very much appreciated.

You can solve this WWYD with two rules one can remember.
1. More than two pairs is bad
2. Furiten isn't bad if the wait has a backup

Getting back to this problem, with 26 tiles in the discard pool, and only two cracks, both of them nines, it would seem that someone (or everyone) is also collecting them. I would think that this would tend to impact the actual mathematical probabilities of the quickest way to tenpai, so under actual game conditions, I'm not sure tossing the would be any better (or worse) than tossing the .

And you not being sure means it's very unlikely that there's actually something that can outpower the amount of superiority of the 2m discard.

I believe that in some cases, and under certain conditions, that the quickest path to tenpai is not always the route that should be followed, but I could be wrong about this. (Is that occult thinking? I am usually digital.)

Certainly there are cases where you have to choose to be slower, but those are because that offers something in return. That something is usually more points or better defense. Dropping the 8m hardly benefits either.

or2az · Post by **or2az** » Fri Jul 25, 2014 2:12 am

I guess I must be overlooking something. I will start over and try again.
Tossing the 8 leaves me with 22 355 77...............................Tossing the 2 leaves me with 23 55 778

The 1 gives me 123 55 77.....(4 tiles).................................The 1 gives me 123 55 77
The 4 gives me 22 345 77.....(4 tiles).................................The 4 gives me 234 55 77
The 5 gives me 23 555 77.....(2 tiles).................................The 5 gives me 23 555 77
The 7 gives me 23 55 777.....(2 tiles).................................The 7 gives me 23 55 777
The 2 gives me 222 55 77.....(2 tiles).................................................................................
.............................................................................The 6 gives me 23 55 678.......(4 tiles)...........
.............................................................................The 9 gives me 23 55 789.......(2 tiles)...........

Okay, tossing the 2 allows for 4 extra available tiles (18 to 14), and more chances for a double-sided wait (10 tiles to 4), which is exactly what saitym said. (I said it was impressive!). The resulting waits, once in tenpai, which I didn't think of before, are definitely a major consideration.
I also do not see any danger of furiten, as I thought previously. I therefore concede the point. Theoretically, the 2 is a better discard.
How I'm supposed to come to this conclusion during the actual game, I don't know. Maybe someday.

WWYD 2014-07-22

comments are appreciated

WWYD 2014-07-22

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