WWYD 2014-09-07

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or2az
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WWYD 2014-09-07

Post by or2az » Sun Sep 07, 2014 3:48 pm

east 3 of hanchan
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Ignatius
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Re: WWYD 2014-09-07

Post by Ignatius » Sun Sep 07, 2014 11:07 pm

At the start of the hand and there are one 4-dot and two 7-dot , out?

Hard to do something with those 5-dot 5-dot 6-dot , maybe discarding the 6-dot is a good idea. It´s the start of the hand, you can come up with something later, no?

I´m writing this without even thinking about this. Just an impulse. Sorry.
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mrfeng
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Re: WWYD 2014-09-07

Post by mrfeng » Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:38 am

When your hand takes shape, more likely or not, you can start focusing aiming to utilise your dora and discard excessive tiles that hinder this.

Hence, my choice is 4s. (little difference with 8s actually)

Try to conceptualise the highest value this hand can go to. This is my conception: 456 678s from 445788s. This hand become riichi dora dora, 5200
So your general direction should be to that aim.

Upon drawing of 3s, 4s and 8s become useless. Why 8s become useless is because, you really don't want this hand to end up not having any dora when you have so much space for it. This similarly can apply to the case if you drew 9s.

Upon drawing of 6s, you will definitely want 369s machi so 4s and 8s also become useless.

6p should be kept because it can give you a faster 1shanten upon drawing 47p. For eg, upon discarding 4s, you draw 7p, you can discard 5p for 14m 36s to tenpai. During this wait to tenpai, a draw of 23m, getting another pair can allow you to discard 8s/3m for a possible higher value hand. (utilising more 369s). Even if you draw 9s first without the other pair, you can still discard 8s (which is why i stated earlier, 8s is as useless as 4s) because your 1shanten becomes better with 1234m 3456s to tenpai. You have your triplet of 9p to make a pair out of it.

Now, the only reason why 4s is more favoured to be discarded first is because it is more dangerous than 8s. If you notice the flow as of above, 8s will be expected to be discarded later in the game. You wouldn't want to do this with 4s as compared to 8s.

Some general advice to note:

1. If you are hoping to form triplets, try not to gun for triples of any tiles that is near the dora because they become extremely dangerous at the later of the game
2. When you have a concealed triplet (ankou) there is no need to fix your pair so early.

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or2az
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Re: WWYD 2014-09-07

Post by or2az » Wed Sep 10, 2014 5:51 am

I am finding this one particularly troublesome (which is why I posted it in the first place).
Initially, I didn't consider discarding any of the bams because after 6 turns, not one has been tossed yet. Not only that, the dora just happens to also be a bam right in the middle of the bam tiles. I considered the 5-dot . This could get me to tenpai with two more draws in a variety of different ways.
I also considered tossing the 9-dot . Drawing two more tiles from 2-crak 3-crak 6-dot 5-bam 7-bam could get me to tenpai for 7-pairs.
(There are 3 each of every one of these still available)

Then I read the above, which also made sense. Again, two more draws gets to tenpai in a variety of ways.
(although mrfeng seems very optimistic about drawing two of the dora tile)
I worked out all of these scenarios on paper (hopefully, correctly) and it always came out the same way, two more draws to tenpai. It took forever.

Now, it also states above to "try to conceptualize the highest value this hand can go to".
I came up with, that by discarding the 6-dot, that again, with two more draws (from 3 different tiles, two each available), that I can get to tenpai with san ankou. (and maybe a red five)
2-dot 3-dot 5-dot 5-dot 5-dot 9-dot 9-dot 9-dot 4-bam 4-bam 4-bam 8-bam 8-bam
This would mean discarding the 5 and 7 bam, both sides of the dora, which I don't think is a good idea.

So ,after all of that, I'm still not sure about what to discard. Sorry.

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Re: WWYD 2014-09-07

Post by mrfeng » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:01 am

Let's analyse this with more depth.

Given 2 totally different directions in conceptualising a highest value hand, there are many reasons why it is better to be optimistic on getting 2 doras then to get sanankou.

1. There is a theory that a confirmed 1 han is better than an unconfirmed 2 han. I can't explain specifically why the theory said so but it is popular amongst players that that is the conclusion. From this, although not confirmed, there is a very high chance of getting 1 Dora then to get sanankou. A high chance is because you have 3-bam 6-bam and 6-bam 9-bam to go through. This means, there's 25% that it the hand turns up with no dora, 25% with 2 doras and 50% with 1 dora. This is 75% of getting that at least 1 han. If we wish to further scrutinise into the small small details, getting a ura-dora from a sequence based hand is higher than a pung-based one. This further jacks up 75% to 80~85%. (Just a personal estimation given that a pinfu hand is around 30% of hitting 1 ura)

2. The Sanankou direction is very inflexible. Let's consider both cases as the worst case scenario. The sanankou hand might end up in Riichi nomi on shapon 5-dot 4-bam machi. Where as the other case will end up in Riichi domi with 1-crak 4-crak or 4-dot 7-dot machi. Given a Riichi nomi hand, a good wait is crucial when your hand value is low. Otherwise you are putting yourself in a high risk of dealing in during the Riichi process (and you can't dama!)

3. Before considering Sanankou, one has to consider the eventual wait to consider its risk that it pose. Do you have a pair of honors to end up with? This hand is a no-no especially when you might end up waiting on dora-soba tiles.

4. The moment you keep the chance of Sanankou available, you are forced to keep 4-bam and 8-bam as long as possible. You will then be forced to discard dangerous tiles, 5-bam and 7-bam when your ankou is completed. Given the number of turns this game has progressed, your discarding of 5-bam and 7-bam will end up be mid 2nd row and even 3rd row of discards. Do you want this to happen? Without a proper planning of what you will be discarding as you progress nearer to tenpai will lead to blaming of luck instead of yourself. (I dealt in when I reached tenpai! It was sanankou! There's no way I should have bailed) Planning starts as early as 1st discard of your hand.

5. 7 pairs shouldn't be considered when your hands have good shapes as well and also when you have too many dora-soba tiles. Due to the difficulty nature of 7 pairs, one should add an additional shanten to it. This means, when you are 1 shanten, your actual speed is 2 shanten to 7pairs tenpai. So a 2 shanten to 7pairs tenpai is 3shanten. Rather slow when you have other faster routes. Simiarly to 4, the moment you try to balance 7pairs into this hand, you will end up with tanki 5-bam or 7-bam which then you will have to dama to switch to a better wait. When that happens, you are again,forcing yourself to discard 5-bam and 7-bam in the late game for a rather low value hand.

7 Pairs is good when you have honors tiles (even if 1 has been discarded, you can safely assume there are 2 more in the wall while you cannot assume the same for other tiles), and no dora-soba tiles (so you can still utilise dora via tanki machi)'

6. 9-dot is the worst discard ever. If you are able to kan the 9-dot , it basically rewards you a han (32fu) and your hand is in the right position to go for a speedy hand.

7. The last point is more of a general way of playing a hand and is based on a concept that aiming for a hand that do not consider utilising dora is an extremely risky play. Look at the bigger picture. Do you know there is a way to lower your chance of dealing in after Riichi? The answer is planning. Plan your hand whereby it can utilise as many dangerous tiles as possible yet have rather decent reward from it. Even if you are able to riichi on sanankou, you will fail to utilise many kinds of dangerous tiles and that is 3-bam 5-bam 6-bam 7-bam 9-bam . Your deal in rate is very high after Riichi. If you plan for 3-bam 6-bam 9-bam waits upon tenpai, your deal in rate will be a lot lower.

Please don't argue on how going for such a wait is lousy because "nobody will discard the dangerous tiles you are waiting on when you riichi" Because the main purpose of Riichi is never to hope for players to deal it but to paralyse them and go for self-draw win.

A good Riichi is one that gives good reward with low risk (because your hand is locked after that)

So, take this chance and get ride of 4-bam when it is safe.

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