SURVEY: Rules and Variance
Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:53 pm
A few thoughts and questions for everyone to discuss about rules. I\'m particularly interested to hear what our resident pros have to say.
1. Do you think Reach competition rules are likely to change in the near future? If so, in what way and why?
2. What are your least favorite rules and why? What would you change if you had the chance?
3. Some patterns seem to score too low. Easy patterns + Dora are much more effective. What are your thoughts on this?
4. What do you think of the Saikouisen Classic Rules? (A-Rules with No Oka, Dealer Must Win to Continue, No Ready Payments on Draw Rounds)
5. What would you say the views of most pros are on these matters?
I ask this after extensively studying Reach statistics along with pro replays from various websites and even having some mathematical simulations run to test out a few things. As a statistician I\'m interested in these things.
One thing that jumps out at me is that variance in competition rules (i.e. fluctuation in player ratings supposed to reflect skill) is a little higher than it should be.
Generally I think the issue has to do with a bias towards self drawn wins.
One culprit appears to be Menzen Tsumo. It happens a very large percentage of the time and is essentially random. Since it is a self draw bonus, it also effects losing players indiscrimiately regardless of defense. Dealers are hit especially hard.
Why remove Ippatsu but not this? I hear that Ippatsu was removed because it is not implicit in the value of the hand, but neither is Menzen. It randomly increases the hand size but Menzen is apparently a lot worse. What is the reasoning behind this? You can still win with a no-yaku hand using Reach.
Menzen also favoritizes hands like Pinfu, which are already dominant enough! Surely it should not be used in competition, which is supposed solely to determine the most skilled player?
Second, the other big issue seems to be the dealer system. This causes a lot of unneccessary variance and, dare I say it, frustration. It would make more sense to have the dealer win/lose more on discard wins/losses, but it just amounts to another self draw bonus with no skill-based disadvantage. Much more significantly, it creates the problem where some dealers are able to continue many times, and others instantly lose out on luck of the draw. Given that each player has only two shots at being dealer, this has a massive random impact on the final scores. If many more hands were played in each game, this would be ironed out more- but why add this extra variance in the first place? It has very little to do with skill anyway. Each player should be allowed to have equal interest in each hand, it\'s also more fun!
The quality of starting hand you are dealt naturally has a massive impact on the game, but with the dealer system unneccessary variance is added to the game because of the big reward received if a good starting deal just so happens to coincide with your turn as dealer. Possible improvements include disallowing dealer continues altogether, making the dealer win/lose more only on discard (so that even non-dealer players stand to benefit on each hand), or just simplifying and getting rid of the dealer scoring system. The dealer still goes first and has the possibilty of double wind tiles. Is that not enough?
The dealer continues are also inconvenient because they cause the game time to vary dramatically, which is not good for tournaments or even for casual play sometimes.
That\'s pretty much all my thoughts on this for the moment.
What do you think?
My pro replay analysis and statistical simulations using real game data suggest that the gap between high level and low level players would be significantly greater if these factors were removed. Thus skill would be rewarded more. Surely something is wrong when top pros place on average barely above 2.5? There is too much variance at the moment for pros to really push ahead.
I have nothing against this variance for gambling or fun rules, but competition rules are a different story. This may have been overlooked in the development of the game since in old-school Japan statistical analysis was not fashionable, but I think some evolution in this area of rules is intellectually necessary for widespread international acceptance of Mahjong as a competitive game of skill.
Let\'s start the discussion!
1. Do you think Reach competition rules are likely to change in the near future? If so, in what way and why?
2. What are your least favorite rules and why? What would you change if you had the chance?
3. Some patterns seem to score too low. Easy patterns + Dora are much more effective. What are your thoughts on this?
4. What do you think of the Saikouisen Classic Rules? (A-Rules with No Oka, Dealer Must Win to Continue, No Ready Payments on Draw Rounds)
5. What would you say the views of most pros are on these matters?
I ask this after extensively studying Reach statistics along with pro replays from various websites and even having some mathematical simulations run to test out a few things. As a statistician I\'m interested in these things.
One thing that jumps out at me is that variance in competition rules (i.e. fluctuation in player ratings supposed to reflect skill) is a little higher than it should be.
Generally I think the issue has to do with a bias towards self drawn wins.
One culprit appears to be Menzen Tsumo. It happens a very large percentage of the time and is essentially random. Since it is a self draw bonus, it also effects losing players indiscrimiately regardless of defense. Dealers are hit especially hard.
Why remove Ippatsu but not this? I hear that Ippatsu was removed because it is not implicit in the value of the hand, but neither is Menzen. It randomly increases the hand size but Menzen is apparently a lot worse. What is the reasoning behind this? You can still win with a no-yaku hand using Reach.
Menzen also favoritizes hands like Pinfu, which are already dominant enough! Surely it should not be used in competition, which is supposed solely to determine the most skilled player?
Second, the other big issue seems to be the dealer system. This causes a lot of unneccessary variance and, dare I say it, frustration. It would make more sense to have the dealer win/lose more on discard wins/losses, but it just amounts to another self draw bonus with no skill-based disadvantage. Much more significantly, it creates the problem where some dealers are able to continue many times, and others instantly lose out on luck of the draw. Given that each player has only two shots at being dealer, this has a massive random impact on the final scores. If many more hands were played in each game, this would be ironed out more- but why add this extra variance in the first place? It has very little to do with skill anyway. Each player should be allowed to have equal interest in each hand, it\'s also more fun!
The quality of starting hand you are dealt naturally has a massive impact on the game, but with the dealer system unneccessary variance is added to the game because of the big reward received if a good starting deal just so happens to coincide with your turn as dealer. Possible improvements include disallowing dealer continues altogether, making the dealer win/lose more only on discard (so that even non-dealer players stand to benefit on each hand), or just simplifying and getting rid of the dealer scoring system. The dealer still goes first and has the possibilty of double wind tiles. Is that not enough?
The dealer continues are also inconvenient because they cause the game time to vary dramatically, which is not good for tournaments or even for casual play sometimes.
That\'s pretty much all my thoughts on this for the moment.
What do you think?
My pro replay analysis and statistical simulations using real game data suggest that the gap between high level and low level players would be significantly greater if these factors were removed. Thus skill would be rewarded more. Surely something is wrong when top pros place on average barely above 2.5? There is too much variance at the moment for pros to really push ahead.
I have nothing against this variance for gambling or fun rules, but competition rules are a different story. This may have been overlooked in the development of the game since in old-school Japan statistical analysis was not fashionable, but I think some evolution in this area of rules is intellectually necessary for widespread international acceptance of Mahjong as a competitive game of skill.
Let\'s start the discussion!