Do You Believe in "Nagare"?

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HotelFSR
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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by HotelFSR » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:43 pm

Yikes.

You mean Judges as in courts of law? The Japanese legal system may be a little archaic but I\'m assuming these guys must have been top students in their time!

Do you think eductional standards are changing in Japan? Is that a reason why \'digital mahjong\' is more of a trend among younger players?

(It\'s frightening to think that it would even be considered a trend rather than plain common sense)


Shirluban: Great post. Hits the nail right on the head.

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by Benjamin » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:36 pm

Naw, this guy was probably around 29 or 30 so I dont think it has much to do with him being old. Just another typical over-educated Japanese with no idea how to apply all the things he\'s memorized to reality.

Sad to say, most people who gamble probably don\'t give too much thought to numbers. Looking at gambling using statistics is something that\'s relatively new in Japan and America. In America I think the first person to look at poker with statistics published his work less than 50 years ago. In Japan, the word for expected value, kitaichi, only made its way into the popular gambling magazines less than 20 years ago.

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by HotelFSR » Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:44 pm

Huh. Interesting.

You\'d think/hope that however rigid your educational system is, basic math or stats would let you understand these kind of concepts across the board.

Funny that Japan is far less religious than a country like America but still produces a sizeable number of people with these kinds of \'supernatural\' views.

Do you think there is a link between education and \'digital mahjong\' or is there some other trend that links the two?

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by Yttrasil » Tue Feb 17, 2009 4:58 pm

It\'s not religious in that regard, but i\'d say they are strong believers or what to call it in other things like charms at the shrine, blood types etc and I think nagare might belong to this category too. Can\'t remember the word for it, anyhow.. . All this is very rooted in tradition and I guess this might be the cause of it all. I don\'t think that deciding things according to probability and statistics in your own life is very much applied by other people, I started to think more in this way after studying poker but before that I at least didn\'t think of my own decisions in those terms so to say.

Btw Ben, you might be the right person to ask this then :) Pachinko, is there any skill involved in it and can you be a winning player in the long run? Kinda is it like blackjack, that if you know how to count cards and change the size of your bets you can become a winning player, and what does the \"house\" think of this and do to counter this if it\'s possible?

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by HotelFSR » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:51 pm

You are right about the element of tradition.

I think there are a few common misconceptions traditionalists have about statistics in general and \'playing by the numbers\'.

They might assume that playing according to the odds means you ignore everything else, such as player psychology. Some might assume that a player who thinks in terms of statistics would not, for example, reach with a bad wait to trick an opponent or do anything that is supposedly \'illogical\'. Of course, this is a misnomer- playing statistically and utlizing psychological tricks are not mutually exclusive in the least. The odds also change (but not in a supernatural way) according to factors such as player styles, habits and tiles on the board, etc. Traditionalists might think that playing by numbers is \'rigid\' and somehow can\'t take this into account, or is somehow opposed to it.

The whole \'digital/analog\' gambling opposition is falsely labeled and misleadingly divided.

Perhaps clearing up these details might help some people see the light on these common sense issues.

I liked your article, Ben. Any chance you could publish something along those lines in a Mahjong magazine like Kindai? What do you think the response would be like?

Well done on your recent victory. Pretty cool that you\'ve done so well in tournaments. It gives you a platform to talk about this stuff, so maybe a few \'analog\' people on the Japanese scene might even listen to what you have to say!

(or maybe they\'ll just brush you off as a poser with massive \'inborn luck\' :angry: )

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by Benjamin » Wed Feb 18, 2009 5:39 am

HotelFSR wrote: They might assume that playing according to the odds means you ignore everything else, such as player psychology.
You hit the nail on the head. This is generally what they complain the most about. On that point I actually agree with them, too many beginners try to look at Mahjong using only numbers and don\'t factor in other elements. On the other hand, its kind of hard to agree with other things they insist, like that there are strategies for maintaining a lucky streak.
I liked your article, Ben. Any chance you could publish something along those lines in a Mahjong magazine like Kindai? What do you think the response would be like?
Thanks! This sort of stuff actually gets published by other people much more knowledgable than me in Kindai all the time, so I think Im sticking with an English audience for the time being. Id love to submit something for Kindai, but I have a hard time thinking of what I could say in Japanese as a foreigner that hasnt already been said.
Well done on your recent victory. Pretty cool that you\'ve done so well in tournaments. It gives you a platform to talk about this stuff, so maybe a few \'analog\' people on the Japanese scene might even listen to what you have to say!
I appreciate the congratulations, but to be honest I dont know how much credibility it gives me. I was definately in the bottom rung of that tournament in terms of skill, and I think everyone knew it.

By the way, in that article I emphasized the people who dont listen to digital arguments at all, but most "analog" people I\'ve met arent that extreme. They recognize the importance of numbers, but still happen to think that there is also a supernatural element that can be controlled. I hope no one thinks that most people actually think that statistics are meaningless.

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by Yukun » Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:11 pm

Yttrasil wrote:Pachinko, is there any skill involved in it and can you be a winning player in the long run? Kinda is it like blackjack, that if you know how to count cards and change the size of your bets you can become a winning player, and what does the "house" think of this and do to counter this if it\'s possible?
Let me answer to this question.
I must say you do need skill and knowledge to be a winning player in the long run in both pachinko and pachi-slot.
There are pro-pachinko players as well. They are able to read the lines between nails, and able to see whether a machine has better possibility of win.
However, luck definitely involves in pachinko world, those pros are rather good at minimizing their lost and try to pick up possible wins.
Pachinko world is much more sophisticated than what everyone thinks!

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by Benjamin » Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:17 pm

I agree with Yukun. Beating Pachinko is certainly possible, but it takes an incredible amount of time and effort to ensure a consistent income over the long term. This sort of thing also applies to horse races. If you spend enough time doing research and bet only when you think you have an advantage, you will come out ahead. If someone is smart enough to do this, their time would probably better spent doing, say, a job.

This sort of research and disciplined play is much harder to do than counting cards, and parlors don\'t frown upon it. In fact, the existence of pachi-pro\'s is probably a good part of the reason so many people play.

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Re:Do You Believe in Nagare?

Post by HotelFSR » Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:12 pm

There\'s a very interesting article online in english about Pachinko pros. I forget where but if I find it I\'ll post a link.

Apparently different machines have different odds which are based on settings which are tweaked by the parlor managers and pros make a living by homing in on the machines with the most favorable odds one after another.

Ben: about articles in Kindai concerning the statistics debate, how are those generally received? are some of them written by top pros and how does it affect their reputation? Is it at all controversial to insist that there are no supernatural elements at play?

Surely many traditionalists must be confusing the concept of controlling odds (i.e. making statistically better plays to open up your waits for example) with controlling luck (i.e. changing or controlling randomness, which is not possible)

Perhaps you could write an article about it from the perspective of a foreigner, for the Japanese audience. Surely there are plenty of readers out there like Yukun who would be interested to know.

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Re:Do You Believe in "Nagare"?

Post by zzo38 » Sun Mar 15, 2009 3:41 am

Of course luck applies but if it applies to me then it applies nearly equally to other players also (but not always). That is why you need to do various other things such as probability, skill, reading tiles, guessing about other player styles, bluff element, risk, etc.

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