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Reading Shan-Ten in High-Level Play

Posted: Fri May 01, 2009 5:45 pm
by HotelFSR
I\'ve been noticing that dama-ten (keeping tenpai on a concealed hand without declaring reach) is a much more common strategy in high-level games.

To that end, I\'ve been wondering about reading your opponents\' shan-ten (steps away from ready) count. For each turn your opponent discards from inside his hand, he could well be reducing his shan-ten count by 1. It\'s a pretty useful countdown to keep your eye on if it looks suspicious.

What I want to know is, what is the starting shan-ten count of the average starting hand? Based on that, combined with reading discards, you can make a pretty good guess when someone has reached silent tenpai. Let\'s say the average is 4, that would mean after four suspicious hand-discards you should be worried. You can also adjust this if the early discards indicate a stronger starting hand.

So, does anyone know the true average number?

3.5 or so?

Re:Reading Shan-Ten in High-Level Play

Posted: Sat May 02, 2009 11:37 am
by TobiasOlsen
I think that assuming you opponent gets one closer to tenpai each time he discards from his hand is too strong. Many discards from the hand is upon drawing a tile that does not bring you closer to tenpai but simply gives you more tiles that will bring you closer (like if you have a 45 and draw a 5). This for when people are attacking fully. If they are playing defensively, they might well decide to get rid of a tile from their hand which they deem they are not going to use anyway in favor of keeping a tile that will be safe later, which again keeps their shan ten number the same.

In most games you would have to assume at least one person if not two to be in silent tenpai by about the 6th discard with this assumption, whereas the average tenpai is somewhat later (at least in my experience)

Re:Reading Shan-Ten in High-Level Play

Posted: Sat May 02, 2009 12:48 pm
by HotelFSR
Good point.


I suppose I should revise that and say that when you think you have spotted a suji is the only time it\'s really likely the shan ten count has gone down.

Perhaps the reverse is more true. If your opponent is discarding his early draws you can be fairly sure he isn\'t reducing his shan-ten.

Re:Reading Shan-Ten in High-Level Play

Posted: Sun May 03, 2009 8:04 am
by Benjamin
I\'m 80% sure its 3 or around 3. There\'s a book that has the data on this but I don\'t have access to it right now.

Re:Reading Shan-Ten in High-Level Play

Posted: Sun May 03, 2009 12:55 pm
by TobiasOlsen
Indeed, if the player does not discard from his hand, he cannot reduce his shan ten. However, if he discards purely from his draws from the beginning (and those discards are not honors and you don\'t think he has decided to give up this hand), then that is a danger sign that he has a fairly low shan ten number, as it indicates that there are few tiles that improve his hand, and this generally happens closer to tenpai.