Probabilities galore!

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Goldeneye
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Probabilities galore!

Post by Goldeneye » Sat May 19, 2012 3:38 pm

I must have caught a once in a blue moon (or rarer) hit.

I started the hand with only six manzu tiles - and in my first five draws, drew manzu tiles each time - the dora indicator was a manzu and one of the manzu was discarded by another player during that time frame.

Continuing as such, seven of my first eight draws were manzu tiles - by that time, opponents only threw out a total of two manzu tiles.

By the time I had a complete manzu set on my tenth turn, eight of my first ten draws were manzu tiles - at this point, opponents threw out a total of four manzu tiles. At that point, I threw away an unrelated manzu tile to declare riichi.

Eventually, I did go out on my thirteenth turn on my ninth manzu draw with a manzu flush. At that point, not including the dora indicator and my riichi discard, eight manzu tiles had been discarded.

I wonder what the probabilities of doing the above are (just making the manzu flush while starting with only six manzu tiles) - it must be fairly astronomical.

Kyuu
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Re: Probabilities galore!

Post by Kyuu » Sun May 20, 2012 3:59 am

Consider:

1. Your initial deal has a set of probabilities.
2. Each time you draw. That's a different set of probabilities, which changes with every turn and factors out current knowns.

The more I even try to think on the math on that - my head will explode.

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