Probabilities galore!
Posted: Sat May 19, 2012 3:38 pm
I must have caught a once in a blue moon (or rarer) hit.
I started the hand with only six manzu tiles - and in my first five draws, drew manzu tiles each time - the dora indicator was a manzu and one of the manzu was discarded by another player during that time frame.
Continuing as such, seven of my first eight draws were manzu tiles - by that time, opponents only threw out a total of two manzu tiles.
By the time I had a complete manzu set on my tenth turn, eight of my first ten draws were manzu tiles - at this point, opponents threw out a total of four manzu tiles. At that point, I threw away an unrelated manzu tile to declare riichi.
Eventually, I did go out on my thirteenth turn on my ninth manzu draw with a manzu flush. At that point, not including the dora indicator and my riichi discard, eight manzu tiles had been discarded.
I wonder what the probabilities of doing the above are (just making the manzu flush while starting with only six manzu tiles) - it must be fairly astronomical.
I started the hand with only six manzu tiles - and in my first five draws, drew manzu tiles each time - the dora indicator was a manzu and one of the manzu was discarded by another player during that time frame.
Continuing as such, seven of my first eight draws were manzu tiles - by that time, opponents only threw out a total of two manzu tiles.
By the time I had a complete manzu set on my tenth turn, eight of my first ten draws were manzu tiles - at this point, opponents threw out a total of four manzu tiles. At that point, I threw away an unrelated manzu tile to declare riichi.
Eventually, I did go out on my thirteenth turn on my ninth manzu draw with a manzu flush. At that point, not including the dora indicator and my riichi discard, eight manzu tiles had been discarded.
I wonder what the probabilities of doing the above are (just making the manzu flush while starting with only six manzu tiles) - it must be fairly astronomical.