A 1000 game statistical analysis
Posted: Fri Dec 27, 2013 8:24 pm
I have just completed my 1000th game (10,936 hands) on the Pro Mahjong Kiwame app over the last 6 months. Yes, I am addicted, but I play a lot during television commercials. Here are some statistical observations and comments, which may or may not be of some interest. You decide.
Of the 27 yaku listed on Barticles yaku summary page (p.70) in order of frequency of occurrence, I was not able to get 3 kongs (San Kantsu) or a Twice Pure Double Chow (Ryanpeko). All Terminals and Honors (Honroto) and a Triple Pong (San Shoku Doko) occurred only once. Little Three Dragons (Sho San Gen) happened twice and I was able to Rob A Kong (Chankan) twice. As it turns out, these are the bottom 6 on the list. Statistics seem to work, so far. ( I also got 2 yakuman, a Heavenly Hand (Tenho), and Parenchan, a double yakuman, for 8 dealer continuances.)
The only other yaku making less than 10 appearances were Chanta and Junchan (Mixed and Pure Outside Hands), 9 and 7 times,respectively. This places them just above the bottom six on my list, well below the positions they should be in. I guess I just don't like those terminals. Maybe I should try for these hands more often.
On the positive side, Chinitsu (Full Flush), which occurred half as many times as Honitsu (Half Flush), occurred twice as often as a Mixed Triple Chow (San Shoku Dojun), which placed it well above the position it should be in.
The weirdest thing in all of this is that Chinitsu occurred 7 times more than Chanta even though it is below it on the yaku list.
I believe this is because in a video game, the bots only fixate on their own hands, without regards to what you are doing, so if you have 9 or more of the same suit exposed, they will still discard more of them, whereas a human will not. This is great, because at 5 han exposed for a Full Flush, that's a lot of points! I posted about this back in Sept. ("How intelligent is artificial intelligence")
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=53178
Okay, now for the game itself:
One out of every 6 hands ended in a draw. ( 5 of 8 draws were tenpai )
Winning by ron occurred 3 times as much as winning by tsumo ( logical, 3 opponents, 1 wall )
Winning by tsumo occurred on average, once per game ( hence, 3 rons per game, or a total of 4 wins per game, on average)
Winning hands (tsumo/ron) occurred 36.4% of the time and I got "ronned" 10.6% of the time. ( I really hate getting "ronned" and it seems to happen more than I want it to, but 10.6% seems like a decent number. If it's not, how often should one get "ronned"? ) You take a chance every time you riichi.
I opened my hand 55% of the time which seems like a high number for a game that stresses concealment. I'm still not sure whether to keep the hand concealed more often. I will get more points on the hands I win but will I win less hands and/or less games? ( I did manage to win 564/1000 games ). I don't think I open the hand too soon but the opportunity seems to arise quite often, like when you have a big lead and want to end the game faster. This seems like a good idea. Perhaps exposing your hand is another thing that is more successful in video games than in real life.
Well, that's it. Feel free to comment and HAVE A HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Addendum: A 4000 game posting of stats can be seen here, if interested.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48440#p57100
Of the 27 yaku listed on Barticles yaku summary page (p.70) in order of frequency of occurrence, I was not able to get 3 kongs (San Kantsu) or a Twice Pure Double Chow (Ryanpeko). All Terminals and Honors (Honroto) and a Triple Pong (San Shoku Doko) occurred only once. Little Three Dragons (Sho San Gen) happened twice and I was able to Rob A Kong (Chankan) twice. As it turns out, these are the bottom 6 on the list. Statistics seem to work, so far. ( I also got 2 yakuman, a Heavenly Hand (Tenho), and Parenchan, a double yakuman, for 8 dealer continuances.)
The only other yaku making less than 10 appearances were Chanta and Junchan (Mixed and Pure Outside Hands), 9 and 7 times,respectively. This places them just above the bottom six on my list, well below the positions they should be in. I guess I just don't like those terminals. Maybe I should try for these hands more often.
On the positive side, Chinitsu (Full Flush), which occurred half as many times as Honitsu (Half Flush), occurred twice as often as a Mixed Triple Chow (San Shoku Dojun), which placed it well above the position it should be in.
The weirdest thing in all of this is that Chinitsu occurred 7 times more than Chanta even though it is below it on the yaku list.
I believe this is because in a video game, the bots only fixate on their own hands, without regards to what you are doing, so if you have 9 or more of the same suit exposed, they will still discard more of them, whereas a human will not. This is great, because at 5 han exposed for a Full Flush, that's a lot of points! I posted about this back in Sept. ("How intelligent is artificial intelligence")
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=53178
Okay, now for the game itself:
One out of every 6 hands ended in a draw. ( 5 of 8 draws were tenpai )
Winning by ron occurred 3 times as much as winning by tsumo ( logical, 3 opponents, 1 wall )
Winning by tsumo occurred on average, once per game ( hence, 3 rons per game, or a total of 4 wins per game, on average)
Winning hands (tsumo/ron) occurred 36.4% of the time and I got "ronned" 10.6% of the time. ( I really hate getting "ronned" and it seems to happen more than I want it to, but 10.6% seems like a decent number. If it's not, how often should one get "ronned"? ) You take a chance every time you riichi.
I opened my hand 55% of the time which seems like a high number for a game that stresses concealment. I'm still not sure whether to keep the hand concealed more often. I will get more points on the hands I win but will I win less hands and/or less games? ( I did manage to win 564/1000 games ). I don't think I open the hand too soon but the opportunity seems to arise quite often, like when you have a big lead and want to end the game faster. This seems like a good idea. Perhaps exposing your hand is another thing that is more successful in video games than in real life.
Well, that's it. Feel free to comment and HAVE A HAPPY NEW YEAR!!
Addendum: A 4000 game posting of stats can be seen here, if interested.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=48440#p57100