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I see now. Had to work it out on paper before I could fully understand what you were saying.
Thanks for the added clarification.

Obviously, I am going for the half flush (honitsu). Does it matter if,
(1) I toss the and go for the wait.
(2) I toss the and go for the wait.
(3) I toss the and go for the wait.
Since there are only two bams in the discards (the 1 and the 9), I decided to go with option (2) and toss my .
(It was successful and I did get the ron win.)
However, I was wondering, Would the be just as likely to be discarded as the ?

Discarding hatsu waits for

Right. Overlooked that. Does that mean I should have went with option (3).
Toss the dragon and go for the wait.

Well, you have four winning tiles instead of three, but hatsu on tsumo goes to 40-3 instead of 30-3.

I see. 1300 extra points but a 1 less tile wait. I don't know, is that worth it? It is early in the hanchan.
More importantly, seeing that there are only the two bams in the discard pool (both terminals), would my opponents tend to discard the middle bams, or risk tossing a green dragon. Maybe they are all collecting bams. I think I'll stick to my original choice of option (2). Thanks for your commentary.

It would be better to discard , since if you draw you can discard the dragon and go for toitoi.

Right. Another good plan. Toss the and if a show up before the dragon, a shot at toi-toi.
That could be a couple of dangerous decisions though, tossing the 6 and the hatsu. At least the 9 was relatively safe.
What to do, what to do, option (1), (2), or (3), I can be so fickle, and like I was just telling somebody, any reasonable decision can be the correct one if the right tiles show up.

I would not overrate 4 tiles efficiency over 3 tiles efficiency of

There is a non-obvious benefit of waiting for hatsu. Given your discard pool, it was obvious that you are doing honitsu. Players wouldn't wish to deal hatsu that potentially gives you a 7.7k. If you don't allow hatsu to be shown to players, players who wish to defend will be stuck with their isolated hatsu in their hand. It becomes a burden to them.

As for , it is still easy for skilled players who play around till getting machi and riichi. After all, there are still 2 and 2 unseen.

The extra tile efficiency is not so important compared to the benefits i've highlighted as above. Furthermore, although not a strong point, it is more likely that there are players with or or as compared to players to have 3 or 2 . The actual tile efficiency of is therefore not likely to be 4. It will be 3 and below.

In conclusion, I would think the best play here is discard of , hope that defending players will discard so you can pon and go for toitoi. Same action if or appear.

Yes, I can see that tossing the would be a good move. Iapetus has suggested the same thing above.
And if, as you say, "defending" players (although I don't see why they would be defending at this point as opposed to going for the win themselves) discard the or or , I can pon it, toss the dragon, and go for toi-toi, and I might get it, and I would feel good.
(Naturally, as I stated above, if the dragon came out before any of those tiles, I would not pass up the win.)

However, If my discarded 6 and then my discarded dragon, that I would toss on my way to toi-toi (which I stated above I believed were somewhat dangerous), were claimed by an opponent for the win, I would not be happy and would wish that I had tossed the safer 9 (which I did and eventually won the hand).
So I would say that both, the (option 1), and the (option 2), were good moves to be considered. I would not consider option 3.

Also, how did you come up with 7700 pts?

7.7k is just a hypothetical score that your opponents can deduce based on your melds.

melded i 2fu, melded is 4fu melded is 4fu. your other set can be

That will give you 7.7k.

I actually don't understand why wouldn't anyone bother to defend given the situation if their hand is still extremely premature. Even if I doubt that you are in Tenpai, I would not discard anymore bamboo as any more call is detrimental.

Sorry, I don't really understand your other points raised including the danger level of being considered in this situation.

7.7k is just a hypothetical score that your opponents can deduce based on your melds.

melded is 2fu, melded is 4fu melded is 4fu. your other set can be

All I can see from my melds are a pong of and a pong of . There are no melded . I might guess honitsu yakuhai 30 fu 3 han (as referee stated above), 3900 pts, and I guess if I infer a dora, that makes it 30 fu 4 han, or 7700 pts. Okay, no problem, not that relevant, forget about it.
Next,

I actually don't understand why wouldn't anyone bother to defend given the situation if their hand is still extremely premature. Even if I doubt that you are in Tenpai, I would not discard anymore bamboo as any more call is detrimental.

Sorry, I don't really understand your other points raised including the danger level of being considered in this situation.

Okay, let's agree that they would defend and not discard any more bamboo as any more calls would be detrimental, as you say. Well, I feel the same way. As I stated above, since there are only two bams in the discards (the 1 and the 9), it's possible that everyone is collecting them, but since I have to toss a bam in order to proceed, I chose the 9, which is on the table, as opposed to the 6, which is not.
That doesn't mean the 6 is really dangerous, only that the 9 seemed less dangerous.
(maybe dangerous is too strong a term, how about "less likely to be claimed")

I think that's as far as I can go. Thanks for your input, always appreciated.

Just to clarify. I wasn't considering an Aka dora.

The following example has 7.7k with your melds.



Sorry. I probably use the terminology, "melded" wrongly because I was trying to refer to the hypothetical hand above. In this case, hatsu is counted as 4fu since it is not a tsumo. I don't know what other word to use to describe this "meld".

Hence, whoever discard risk 7.7k to you from their point of view.

If I have to choose, I'll discard the Hatsu, and probably the next would be the 6 sou. If I can get the Toitoi, the better.

But if you draw or have the opportunity to claim the or the after you discard the hatsu, would you pass up the win?
They are both winning tiles and no toi-toi.