Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

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HotelFSR
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Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Fri May 22, 2009 12:18 pm

Image


East Round, Third Hand. You\'re in 3rd with 22k, 1st is 33k and others are within 3k of your score.

You are the dealer. It\'s your turn. What would you discard and why?


(the hands are blacked out because there\'s no option to hide tiles in toupaiou replays yet, only left player has stolen)

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Fri May 22, 2009 12:24 pm

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First hand of the game.

You are the dealer. It\'s your turn. What would you discard and why?

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by Esh » Fri May 22, 2009 1:57 pm

First post:

Discard the four and go for a double pair wait. Seems better to wait on than a closed wait.


Second post:

Discard the one bamboo. It\'s far too dangerous to keep around in the late game, and it appears to be dead weight in the hand anyways. Might as well.

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Fri May 22, 2009 2:56 pm

Good try but \"wrong\" on both :)



You\'d get ronned in both cases. The first one you have to go for the closed wait because the 4-7 is dangerous both opposite and on your left because of the way the 8 has come out in both piles with timing suggesting ura-suji.

Since it\'s late in the hand anyway it\'s more important that you keep your dealer tenpai since you\'re unlikely to win and your hand is very obvious.

Go for the 6. It\'s not looking dangerous because we stole a 9 from the player on the left, meaning his 8 is definitely not a matagi and the same is probably true for the player opposite.

You really don\'t need to risk it for the toi-toi scorewise either.

The second one you need to hold the dora because of the player on your right. He\'s going for chanta, having discarded great middle tiles including a red five. The nine that\'s come out is worrying, and he\'s probably opened his hand because he has dora- why would else would he risk opening his hand when chanta alone would give him only 1 han on the first hand? It\'s not like he has a point lead to protect. Too suspicious! It\'s still fairly early so you have time to go for a different tenpai.


I picked these because they\'re pretty sneaky examples from actual games.

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by Benjamin » Sat May 23, 2009 5:37 pm

These are interesting examples, thanks for posting them.

It\'s difficult to see what everyone\'s score is and what round it is. If there\'s no way to make this clearer in the screenshot, posting them under it would be helpful.

I\'d discard 4-bam, 6-bam.

I realize my choice loses in the first example, but I don\'t think that makes it wrong. I disagree with your reasoning. You\'re right about 7-8 being unlikely, but ura-suji aren\'t reliable. Sure it turned out that they had 6-8, drew 5, and discarded 8, but who\'s to say they didn\'t have 4-5 in the first place?

In the second example discarding the dora is too dangerous. The guy after you looks like he\'s going for junchan. If this were in the south round and I were behind, I\'d discard the dora anyways.

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Sat May 23, 2009 6:54 pm

Are ura-suji so unreliable? Depends on how you spot them.

The turn order is important. When they come out of the hand mid-game like that it tends to be ultra suspicious in my experience. Also the suit- the fact that the 8 for both players is the first discard of that suit and they both came out of the hand (which you unforunately can\'t see on a still).

You can\'t just take suji as an isolated thing, or indeed they are unreliable. I find they\'re often more accurate than you\'d expect. They can also indicate the right wait(s)/suit(s) at least in part even when they don\'t reflect the exact shape of, say, a kanchan upgrading to a ryanmen.


In this case I am swayed by the fact that we have another safer option (the 6) and it\'s fairly late in the hand as dealer so tenpai is most important. We also are not desperate.


P.S. You\'re right, it\'s not that it\'s \'wrong\' per se- just that you\'d get ronned. I added the info as you suggested =)

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by Yttrasil » Sat May 23, 2009 7:25 pm

Again case oriented thinking and not long run, first hand 4s since the other tiles also are very dangerous and you get a bigger hand and the chance of a 2 coming out is bigger than 3 or 5s(more reasoning than this to consider but again 4s is best)

Second 1s since I\'m the dealer don\'t forget he discarded the 4s so his only chance is either pair or three of a kind which will suck to deal into but still you are dealer... am not as sure on the second one though as the first hand but still lean toward 1s.

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Sat May 23, 2009 7:32 pm

Don\'t you think that it makes a difference in the first one that it\'s late in the hand? I would consider 4 more if it was early.

Your tsumo chances are also the same on the closed wait and shanpon. It looks like the player opposite might keep a 2s should he draw it and it seems your chance of ron is low because everyone is wanting sou tiles. Our late 1s also makes 2s look dangerous to the other players.

Surely 4s is more dangerous than 6s either way?

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by Yttrasil » Sat May 23, 2009 7:37 pm

True that but the chances of you winning will be lowered a great deal since the possibility of a 5 coming is alot less than a 2 or then a 6 with your reasoning especially. Our hand is worth too much to first lower our chances of winning with it and at that also make it worth less. True that the 4s is more dangerous than the 6s but that doesn\'t matter here...

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Re:Some WWYD from Toupaiou! (Part 1)

Post by HotelFSR » Sat May 23, 2009 7:44 pm

Surely though it\'s better to forget about ron?

Who is going to throw a sou tile against an obviously ready flushing dealer late in the hand? Especially when they seem to be using sou tiles themselves. I think you can decide this one off the tsumo odds alone and deal the safer tile.

Either way, I wouldn\'t really expect to win the hand at this point. If we accept that the fives are being used then we must be very worried that we\'ll get ronned on 4s.

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