What Would You Discard (11/7)

[Shirluban]

I\'ll discard 1-bam
It lets both ways for sanshoku and itsu, and I don\'t have use of so much pairs.
If 8-crak wasn\'t the dora, I would probably discard it instead.

[b4k4ni04]

Along the same vein, I\'d drop the 9S.
If you do get a Straight here, the 8M\'s make a nice pair.

In aiming for Sanshoku, I\'d probably try to stretch it to tanyao as well.

[Zi Rong Low]

I'd discard the , see if I can aim for "Itsu" Ikkitsuukan (Straight Flush) for Bamboos... I wouldn't discard the so early and would probably keep it, unless I picked up a later on.

[xKime]

Forget about ittsuu, erase the 2do-uke of the 1224 shape, and leave an eye for sanshoku.

In your turn as dealer, lowering your 和了率 (win percentage) by aiming for two (un-guaranteed) roads at the same time, will only end up hurting you (neither the sanshoku or the ittsuu are assured). With two dora in the hand and a good chance for sanshoku (more so than ittsuu), let's give priority to the uke-ire, and therefore speed. Not only that, but it is also better for the final shape of the hand.

--
I also tried to run this hand on Masayoshi Ara's Expected Value analyzer just to see if my choice was correct EV-wise, and turns out it was. Yay. I also simulated a few discards and draws, and ended up with this hand by only the 7th draw:



Even without riichi, a dealer mangan chance. With riichi, haneman chance.

Other possibilities going around included:







And the like.

The ranking went out like this: http://img408.imageshack.us/i/evinput.jpg/