ouch! that hurts!

[or2az]

Instead of the usual "what would be the better discard", I am curious as to any clues that I may have missed on the table that would have helped me anticipate the disaster that was about to happen as soon as I tossed what I thought would be a safe tile, but obviously wasn't.

situation #1
East 2 of hanchan, I was South. About 5 tiles left. I tossed a . Everyone was still concealed, except West, who had a dot chow exposed along with a in his discard pile three turns prior. Wham! I just dealt into a dealer haneman of 18,000 pts (pinfu, tanyao, iipeiko, dora 3). Ouch! That hurt!
I managed to crawl back into 3rd place but that was hardly a consolation.

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situation #2
Another disaster. It's South 2 and I'm sitting south with 14 tiles left. I tossed . I had discarded one earlier and there were eights and nines on the table.Thought it was safe. It wasn't. Dealt into dealer mangan. 12,000 pts. (tanyao dora 4). Obviously, I didn't recover from this one. Oh, the pain. Hardly ever go bankrupt.

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situation #3
This one really hurt. East 4 of hanchan. I was North. South called riichi. I was bailing. Tossed 6 safe tiles (9p,9s,9s,8s,7p,7p). Then I tossed the . Thought it was safe too. There was one showing, along with lots of other low dots. It wasn't. Ouch! Dealt into another mangan (40 fu, 4 han, I think).

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Now I realize that you can't win all the time and these things happen, but I sure would like to know what I should have seen before I made these discards.

[Gnom]

I wouldn't have been so weary of the dealer in #1 so I might have dealt in, but in the three situations there where some hints that your discards weren't the safest (although it's hard to know which tiles really have a strong meaning without knowing if each discard was a tsumogiri or not).

#1 2 and 3 pin were discarded late. That may indicate that they where conflicting with another mentsu. Once again I don't know if they were tsumogiri or not but the shape may have been 2356 (+ 77), in which case one would have to choose between 23 and 56. You couldn't say for sure it was safe but there may have been safer discards.

#2 not as accurate, especially with the early 4-sou discard. Still, that koutsu of 4man and the number of honor discards reduce the likeliness of yakus other than tanyao (or toi toi and yakupai but without calling they weren't as likely I feel). If defending I'd have discarded terminals/honors first.

#3 That would be the early discard of 1pin that would make 2356 dangerous. Anything that revolves around the 4.

[Iapetus]

What's more important here is what you had in your hand. Anything that's not 100% safe is dangerous. The question is if your hand is good enough to justify the risk. That also shows if there was a safer choice.

[Referee]

Reposting this here because it is kinda approppriate. Game was already going less than nice. Then this happened: http://tenhou.net/0/?log=2011052507gm-0 ... tw=0&ts=15

[Trystero]

Gnom's logic seems strong. I like his thinking for #2 especially, since dual pair waits are basically impossible to predict otherwise.

My thoughts are more generalized. For the first scenario, the dealer discarded a lot of man tiles, meaning his hand is more likely full of sou and pin. A two-suit hand means he is more likely to have dora, so we might be suspicious and play more cautiously towards him as a result. For the second scenario, seeing the dealer with three visible dora would be enough to scare me into playing super defensively towards him (assuming you weren't already doing that and had to make a call without any 100% safe tiles on hand). In scenario 3, the first 2 pin discard was so early it didn't really have any bearing on its safety.

[or2az]

Thanks for all the replies.

it's hard to know which tiles really have a strong meaning without knowing if each discard was a tsumogiri or not

Unfortunately, I can't tell on this video game. It also does not show ALL the hands after a win, only after a draw, and this is an optional setting.

case #1

the shape may have been 2356

I suspect this may have been the case. When West tossed the 4p three turns prior, the dealer wasn't tenpai yet so he couldn't win off it. During the next 2 turns, he became tenpai, tossed his 3p, and was now waiting on the 4p for the win. When I saw that 4p in the discards go unclaimed (along with 2p and 5p all over the table), I was fooled into thinking mine was safe and I got slammed. Maybe I should have seen that....maybe not. Hindsight is always 20/20.

case #2

the early 4-sou discard

seeing the dealer with three visible dora would be enough to scare me into playing super defensively towards him (assuming you weren't already)

Anything that's not 100% safe is dangerous

I thought I was playing defense. 11 of my first 12 discards were terminals and honors. The only one that wasn't was the 7s, and it went through. That's why I tossed it again. I forgot that his 4s discard just meant he can't use the 7s on a ryanmen wait. Overlooked the shanpon wait. Got what I deserved.

case #3

the first 2 pin discard was so early it didn't really have any bearing on its safety.

the early discard of 1pin makes 2356 dangerous. Anything that revolves around the 4.

agreed. Should have been aware of that. Saw all those low dots on the table..... and paid the price.

I know there were possible better discards in my hands that I would have utilized if I was strictly operating on defense but as I stated before, I was curious about things I may have overlooked on the table for the decisions I made while still on offense. After all, I like to win, even though I know it's just as important not to lose.
I guess that sometimes, even the best laid plans go awry.

Thanks again for all the input.